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基于Bootstrap-GA-ELM算法的清香型白酒发酵过程酒醅淀粉和水分含量区间预测模型
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张贵宇(1987-),男,博士,副教授,研究方向:白酒自动化、人工智能,E-mail:gyz_118@163.com 通讯作者:向星睿(1999-),男,硕士研究生,研究方向:智能酿造,E-mail:1460863207@qq.com

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四川省科技计划项目(2022YFS0554);酿酒生物技术及应用四川省重点实验室开放课题(NJ2022-06);泸州老窖研究生创新基金(LZCX2023-7);四川轻化工大学科技成果转化专项项目(HXJY01);五粮液产学研合作项目(CXY2022ZR007)


Interval Prediction Model for Starch and Moisture Content in Fermenting Grains during Light-flavor Baijiu Fermentation Based on the Bootstrap-GA-ELM Algorithm
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    摘要:

    针对清香型白酒发酵过程酒醅淀粉和水分含量信息难以获取的困境,且传统点预测模型仅提供单一预测值而难以量化结果的可靠度的问题,提出一种发酵过程酒醅淀粉和水分含量区间预测模型。首先,从黄水理化参数和酒醅温度等易测潜在解释变量中,通过相关系数、最小角回归(LARS)综合分析确定酒醅淀粉和水分预测模型的输入参数。其次,通过遗传算法(GA)优化极限学习机(ELM)的隐层权值和阈值,建立精度较高的酒醅淀粉和水分点预测模型。最后,通过4种不同自助法(Bootstrap)对点预测结果、系统误差以及随机误差进行估计,以此构建不同置信度下的酒醅淀粉和水分含量预测区间。结果表明,在99%置信度下,基于Residual Bootstrap方法建立的区间预测模型效果最好,在酒醅淀粉和水分测试集上,点预测的判定系数(R2)和均方根误差(RMSE)分别为0.998 9、0.109 1,0.920 3、0.802 1,预测区间的区间覆盖率(PICP)和平均预测区间宽度(MPIW)分别为100%、0.728 0%,100%、4.339 9%。该研究可对清香型白酒发酵过程酒醅淀粉和水分含量进行可靠预测,为白酒生产指导和发酵过程透明化提供参考。

    Abstract:

    To address the challenges of obtaining starch and moisture content information from fermented grains during the fermentation of light-flavor baijiu and the limitations of traditional point prediction models, an interval prediction model was proposed for measuring starch and moisture content in fermented grains during fermentation. Firstly, input parameters for the starch and moisture prediction models were determined through a comprehensive analysis of easily measurable potential explanatory variables, such as physicochemical parameters of Huangshui and fermented grain temperature, using correlation coefficients and least-angle regression. Secondly, a high-accuracy point prediction model for starch and moisture content in fermented grains was established by optimizing hidden layer weights and thresholds of the extreme learning machine using a genetic algorithm. Finally, four different Bootstrap methods were employed to estimate point prediction results, systematic errors, and random errors, thereby constructing prediction intervals for starch and moisture content in fermented grains at different confidence levels. Results indicated that, at a 99% confidence level, the interval prediction model based on the Residual Bootstrap method exhibited superior performance. On the test set for starch and moisture content in fermented grains, the coefficients of determination for points predictions were 0.998 9 and 0.109 1, respectively, and the root-mean-square error for point predictions were 0.920 3 and 0.802 1, respectively. The prediction interval coverage probabilities were 100% and 0.728 0%, and the mean prediction interval widths were 100% and 4.339 9%, respectively. This study provides reliable predictions for starch and moisture content in fermented grains during the production of light-flavor baijiu, offering valuable references for production guidance and improving transparency in the fermentation process.

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张贵宇,向星睿,张磊,王怡博,严俊,张云龙.基于Bootstrap-GA-ELM算法的清香型白酒发酵过程酒醅淀粉和水分含量区间预测模型[J].现代食品科技,2026,42(3):211-222.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-04
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-08
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